While we’ve been busy working on bathroom remodeling, kitchen renovations and installing gorgeous new hardwood flooring through ought Orange County other industries have slowed during the recession of the past few years. But the Orange County Register posted today that Orange County is poised for major job growth with local employers expected to add more than 100,000 workers to payrolls over the next three years, according to a 2011 economic forecast released today by Cal State Long Beach.
The forecast predicts Orange County will lead the region in hiring, adding a modest 19,000 new workers this year after losing that many in 2010. Next year, however, hiring is expected to more than double to 39,000 new positions and then grow by another 43,000 in 2013.
While a healthy turnabout from the job losses of the last four years, Long Beach’s forecast for 2013 still would leave Orange County employment 64,000 below the peak of 1.5 million in 2006.
Grobar said Orange County and the region are finally getting back in sync with the national economy after taking greater hit from the mortgage meltdown and real estate slump.
The forecast predicts the U.S. gross domestic product to increase 2.7 percent this year and that employers will hire an average 200,000 new workers a month nationwide.
Manufacturing in Orange County is one of the sectors getting a particular boost from the lower dollar and an increased appetite overseas for electronics and transportation equipment and metal and machinery manufacturing. The forecast predicts local manufacturers will add 9,500 workers in the next three years.
Another strong sector will be business and professional services. The forecast estimates nearly 27,000 new jobs will be created in that sector.Grobar said a lot of the growth has been in professional, scientific and technical services. Orange County’s tourist industry, which has shown strength, will continue to grow, adding nearly 16,000 jobs over the next three years.
The forecast expects even the hard-hit construction sector to make a comeback with 1,800 jobs this year, 1,300 in 2012 then 8,700 in 2013.
Lagging sectors will include retail, information, which is hurt by the declining telecom employment, and government.
CSULB’s Orange County forecast had the advantage of more recent data than the four other major outlooks, which were prepared well before the run-up in gasoline prices, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami and the unrest in the Middle East.
The Long Beach forecast placed it in the middle of the pack for this year’s employment outlook.
The Los Angeles Economic Development Corp. had the least optimistic Orange County job outlook this year, predicting 15,600 new jobs. UCLA was the highest with 24,000. Chapman University was close behind with a forecast of 23,000.
Cal State Long Beach forecast Orange County employers will add 19,000 jobs this year, placing it in the middle of the pack for this year’s employment outlook.
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Compare the forecasts
||Cal State Long Beach (May 2011)
||LAEDC (Feb. 2011)
||Chapman University (Dec. 2010)
||Cal State Fullerton (Oct. 2010)
||UCLA (Oct. 2010)
|O.C. job growth
|O.C. unemployment rate
|O.C. personal income growth
|O.C. building permits
|10-year Treasury note
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